Heading into its final game in pool play here in the 2026 World Baseball Classic, Team USA looked like it was sitting pretty. It had beaten the team viewed as its toughest competition in the pool with a two-run victory over Mexico. All that stood in the way of a 4-0 pool record was Italy, not traditionally a powerhouse in the World Baseball Classic. 

Nine innings later: Italy 8, USA 6

Not only was that an emphatic statement from Italy, it was one of the biggest upsets in WBC history. The Americans were 5.5-run favorites, and they fell behind 8-0. Italy is now 3-0 in pool play and can earn the top spot in the pool with a win over Mexico on Wednesday night. The star-studded Team USA roster, however, is now in serious danger of elimination before the knockout stage.

The tiebreaker is hanging over the Italy-Mexico bout to come on Wednesday. Two teams will advance from Pool B with Great Britain and Brazil eliminated. USA has finished 3-1. Italy is 3-0 and Mexico is 2-1 with their aforementioned game left on the schedule. 

The easiest way for Team USA to advance is an Italy win, which would drop Mexico to 2-2. If Mexico, on paper a more talented team than Italy, wins, though, that would mean there are three 3-1 teams in the pool and the complicated three-team tiebreaker would come into play.

So how did American fans get here -- needing to worry about Italy and Mexico when this USA squad is so loaded? 

Well, it's a tournament of small-sample baseball, and fluky outcomes can happen. Team USA has never gotten through pool play undefeated. Japan only beat Australia, 4-3. The loaded Dominican Republic team in 2023 went 2-2 and failed to advance. Weird stuff can happen. 

Specifically in Tuesday's game, Team USA didn't hit for six innings, benched some really good bats, two pitchers gave up huge home runs and there was a major defensive gaffe. You just can't dig yourself an 8-0 hole and expect to win. 

There will be some who wonder why USA manager Mark DeRosa seemed to treat this game like one that didn't matter when a spot in the next round hadn't yet been clinched. 

As for the lineup, Paul Goldschmidt played over Bryce Harper, Will Smith played over Cal Raleigh, Ernie Clement was at second with Gunnar Henderson at third, which put Alex Bregman on the bench. Also, Pete Crow-Armstrong played in center field over Byron Buxton.

We could nitpick this if we so chose at the start of the game. I know DeRosa is trying to make everyone happy, but it's hard to figure Goldschmidt starting over Harper at this point in his career (Harper did pinch-hit in the eighth inning and flew out while representing the tying run). The catcher situation is perfectly defensible, as is Crow-Armstrong over Buxton (Buxton is a better hitter, but PCA was a 30-30 guy last year, an incredible defender and had a huge double against Great Britain to kick start the offense). Clement in the lineup instead of Bregman or Brice Turang is questionable, though, even if not overly egregious. 

Still, the whole lineup was bad until it was too late and the replacements weren't really the problem. We'll get to that. 

The pitching wasn't acceptable, either. 

USA starter Nolan McLean coughed up three runs in three innings on home runs from Kyle Teel and Sam Antonacci. Ryan Yarbrough allowed a two-run homer to Jac Caglianone. An errant throw from reliever Brad Keller in the sixth inning opened the door for three more Italy runs, with the last one coming home on a wild pitch. 

For those wanting to blame DeRosa, wondering why McLean went here against Italy instead of saving Tarik Skubal could be fair -- but we also don't know what was requested from Skubal and the Tigers. Ryan Yarbrough is not the top of the middle-relief options, but Matthew Boyd and Michael Wacha also got touched up in their outings. 

That Keller error was a killer, too, both in this game and on the looming tiebreaker. It looked like a double-play ball that would end the top of the sixth with Italy leading 5-0. Instead, Italy took an 8-0 lead. USA ended up with rallies in the seventh and eighth innings and things sure could have looked a whole lot different without those extra three runs for Italy. 

On the Italy side, credit Michael Lorenzen and the bullpen for holding down a powerful USA lineup. Lorenzen worked 4 ⅔ scoreless innings. 

Still, this USA team shouldn't have had so much trouble with Lorenzen, who had a 4.64 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 141 ⅔ innings for the Royals last season, and the Italy bullpen. It just laid an egg, mostly, for six innings. 

It bears repeating that this sort of stuff happens in baseball. We've seen it so many times and will see it plenty this season. There will be games where the Rockies' pitching staff holds down their opponents in Coors Field. It's baseball. That's how it goes.

It was just jarring to see it all unfold in this fashion before the seventh-inning rally. Through five innings, Team USA was scoreless on two hits. Through six innings, Team USA had three hits and the one run was a solo homer from Henderson.

It should be noted that the lineup changes weren't really the culprit. Goldschmidt singled to start a rally in the seventh. Clement was removed for a pinch-hitter in Turang, who doubled. Smith laced a double earlier in the game and then singled during an eighth-inning rally. Crow-Armstrong hit a three-run homer then to make things interesting in the seventh and then hit another in the ninth. He was the offensive star for USA. 

Meanwhile, Aaron Judge went 0 for 4 and struck out to end the game as the tying run. Harper, as we mentioned, flew out to end the eighth inning with two runners on base. 

I'm finding it hard to blame DeRosa here, even if I hated the lineup from the get-go. The allowed home runs by McLean and Yarbrough in addition to the awful throw by Keller are most to blame, and we could loop in the slow-starting offense. 

And, again, you just can't put yourself in a situation where you're facing an eight-run deficit. 

Regardless, arguably the most talented USA team in WBC history waits and watches while Aaron Nola takes the ball for Italy with Javier Assad likely going for Mexico on Wednesday night. Team USA needs an Italy win or a lot of scoring. It shouldn't have been this way with so much firepower, but this is the reality or a tournament with such small margin for error.