Florida State's late-season surge came to a gutting end on Thursday night in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament as the Seminoles fell 80-79 to Duke. FSU would have surged into NCAA Tournament consideration with an upset win over the mighty Blue Devils, and they nearly pulled it off.
The 'Noles led by eight in the second half behind a huge performance from Lajae Jones and Robert McCray V. The duo combined for 53 points as FSU scorched the nets with 52% shooting against a Duke team playing shorthanded. In the end, a potential go-ahead 3-point attempt from McCray missed the mark just before the final horn.
While it wasn't Florida State's night, going toe-to-toe with the current No. 1 overall seed in CBS Sports Bracketology served as another sign that the program is progressing. The Seminoles stood at just 7-11 (0-5 ACC) in mid-January under first-year coach Luke Loucks. At that point, the 35-year-old former Seminoles guard and longtime NBA assistant unlocked his team's winning gear.
Before Thursday's loss, FSU had won 10 of its past 12 games. The Seminoles won't be going dancing, but the program appears to have a bright future.
The Duke-Florida State thriller was one of several conference tournament games on Thursday with serious bubble implications. Here's the rundown of Bracketology-oriented winners and losers from the day's action as Selection Sunday looms.
Winner: Oklahoma claims final spot -- for now
Like Florida State, Oklahoma has rebounded from a miserable start to conference play to play meaningful postseason basketball. The Sooners passed SMU as the last team in the CBS Sports Bracketology field of 68 on Thursday night after beating Texas A&M 83-63 in the second round of the SEC Tournament. The victory improved the Sooners to 19-14 and set the stage for a quarterfinal showdown with Arkansas on Friday night that could determine OU's final fate.
OU's rise to serious NCAA Tournament consideration is a remarkable surge that seemed impossible in early February. The Sooners have won eight of their past 10 games since a nine-game losing streak early in SEC play.
Winner: No. 1 seed candidates survive debuts
Duke survived FSU's upset bid and will remain the No. 1 overall seed in CBS Sports Bracketology for now, as Isaiah Evans led the way with 32 points for a team playing without injured starters Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II.
Fellow projected 1-seed Arizona began its postseason journey with an 81-59 thrashing of UCF in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament. UConn, which is the top-ranked No. 2 seed in CBS Sports Bracketology, throttled Xavier 93-68 in Big East Tournament quarterfinal action. If the Huskies win the Big East Tournament and projected No. 1 seed Florida fails to win the SEC Tournament, UConn will have a case to surpass the Gators as the fourth No. 1 seed.
Loser: Miami (Ohio) leaves it in the committee's hands
Miami (Ohio) finally suffered its first loss Thursday, falling 87-83 to UMass in the quarterfinals of the MAC Tournament. The RedHawks are still in the CBS Sports Bracketology field, but the defeat leaves their ultimate fate in the hands of the selection committee. With a Wins Above Bubble (WAB) mark of roughly 1.75, Miami's resume should hold up well in the committee room when compared against teams on the cut line. One of WAB's greatest features is that it allows the committee to compare resumes from vastly different schedules. The RedHawks received minimal credit for their 26 wins against Quad 3 and Quad 4 competition. But the series of incremental gains accumulated through those victories was not eradicated by one bad loss. Still, the UMass loss caps Miami's seeding ceiling, as a double-digit seed is now firmly in the realm of possibility.
Miami (Ohio) stunned by UMass, still projected in NCAA Tournament field -- but the fallout could be big
Cameron Salerno
Winner: Two-bid MAC appears likely
Miami's loss brought an obvious silver lining for the MAC, as the conference is now positioned to send two teams to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1999. Assuming Miami is selected as an at-large team, it will be joined by the eventual tournament champion. No. 2 seed Akron actually rates as the league's top team in predictive metrics and survived a scare against Buffalo to emerge with. 73-70 win. If the Zips make it to the Big Dance, they could be a prime Cinderella candidate. But don't sleep on UMass, which will be riding high after handing Miami its only loss of the season.
Loser: NC State can't stack wins
NC State could have removed any shred of doubt over its NCAA Tournament credentials by upsetting No. 2 seed Virginia in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament. But the Wolfpack fell 81-74 and will enter Selection Sunday at 20-13 with seven losses in their last nine games. This team hasn't won consecutive games since early February, and the finer points of its resume don't hold up well against scrutiny. NC State's best road wins over Clemson and SMU have depreciated in value, and a 24-point victory over North Carolina comes with a significant asterisk since UNC was missing stars Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar. The Wolfpack are almost certainly safe. But a trip to the First Four remains in the range of potential outcomes.
Loser: Auburn wilts under pressure
Auburn could have moved to a position of relative security with a win over Tennessee in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. But the Tigers wilted in the second half, falling 72-62 in a defeat that could prove fatal for their at-large hopes come Sunday. At 17-16, they are now back in the First Four Out within CBS Sports Bracketology. Tennessee used a 20-0 run to turn a 10-point deficit into a 10-point lead late in the second half as star freshman Nate Ament stole the show with 27 points.
Winner: Seton Hall stays alive
At minimum, Seton Hall will need a victory over St. John's in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament on Friday to have a true case for at-large consideration. But the Pirates took an essential first step Thursday by edging Creighton 72-61 in the quarterfinals. With so many other bubble teams struggling, there is a narrow path for coach Shaheen Holloway's club. The Pirates are still a long shot, but they aren't done yet.
Loser: Missouri will sweat a little bit
Is Missouri safe? Most likely. Are the Tigers a "lock?" Not quite. That status was within reach as the Tigers erased a 16-point deficit in the second half against Kentucky in the second round of the SEC Tournament. But Mizzou couldn't get across the finish line in a 78-72 loss that will make the Tigers at least somewhat nervous on Selection Sunday. The real uncertainty is probably less about making the field and more about potentially getting slotted in the First Four. Three straight losses entering Selection Sunday simply took the wind from the sails of a 20-12 Mizzou team that played a weak nonconference schedule.
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