2026 March Madness predictions: NCAA bracket expert picks, odds for Sweet 16 games on Friday


                        2026 March Madness predictions: NCAA bracket expert picks, odds for Sweet 16 games on Friday
By: CBS Sports Posted On: March 26, 2026 View: 0

The 2026 NCAA Tournament schedule is winding down, and now there are just four Sweet 16 games left before we head into the weekend with eyes on the Elite Eight and handing out tickets to the Final Four. But there is no time to linger with sadness on the upcoming conclusion of March Madness, because the four-game slate for Friday night is packed with blue bloods, future pros and Hall of Fame coaches going head-to-head on this Sweet 16 stage. 

The night gets started with No. 1 seed Duke and No. 5 seed St. John's in Washington, D.C., in the first East Regional semifinal. Rick Pitino's relationship with Duke is quite notable, as he has been on both sides of crucial second-weekend results in multiple decades. Pitino's Louisville team beat Duke in the Elite Eight in 2013 on the way to winning a national championship, but his Kentucky team was also beaten by Christian Laettner and "The Shot" in the 1992 East Regional Final. But what about Duke's history with St. John's? As it turns out, every single Duke national championship season (1991, 1992, 2001, 2010, 2015) has included a game against the Red Storm in either the regular season or the NCAA Tournament. After reaching the Final Four last season and entering this year's tournament as the No. 1 overall seed, Jon Scheyer and the Blue Devils are hoping perhaps this game can be a win that springboards a run at continuing that trend. 

The early window on Friday night also features Michigan, the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region, going toe-to-toe with No. 4 seed Alabama in a game that features the No. 3 and No. 6 most efficient offenses in the country and two of the fastest teams remaining in the tournament when it comes to adjusted tempo. This up-and-down, high-octane brand of basketball will require your full attention, so while Duke-St. John's seems like a headliner, make sure you've got ways to monitor the action in Chicago as well. 

Then the night slate will have No. 2 seed UConn and No. 3 seed Michigan State colliding in a game brimming with brutality in the other East Regional semifinal. Dan Hurley and Tom Izzo have teams that reflect their own identities, so every screen and box-out is going to be an absolute war. For UConn, it's an opportunity to keep marching in the tournament after their efforts to three-peat were stomped out by Florida in the Round of 32 last season, and for Michigan State, it's a chance to reach the Elite Eight for a second straight season. 

Shortly after that game gets started, the second Midwest Regional semifinal will feature No. 2 seed Iowa State against No. 6 seed Tennessee. Cyclones coach T.J. Otzelberger has spent some of this week pushing back on coaching rumors and affirming his commitment to Iowa State, showing full strength and commitment to the team's efforts to win. The same could be said for second-leading scorer Joshua Jefferson, who is working to return from an ankle injury he suffered in the opening round of the tournament. Having Jefferson's scoring and rebounding is a huge piece of how the Cyclones stack up against Tennessee, the lowest seed in action on Friday night, as the Vols are eyeing a third-straight Elite Eight appearance under Rick Barnes.

Now let's keep the conversation going with our favorite pick in each game. With only four games on the schedule, we did get a bit specific with some of our plays, so if you are more of a traditionalist, favoring the straight-up and against-the-spread selections, we have included those as well via the Expert Picks panel. 

(1) Duke vs. (5) St. John's 

7:10 p.m. on CBS | March Madness Live 

Duke has been much better defensively in the second half of games throughout the season, and the ways the Blue Devils can wear down St. John's defense will include getting the Johnnies in some foul trouble as they try to contain Cameron Boozer. It all points to a fast start and a strong first-half performance for Rick Pitino's crew, which had to fly back from San Diego but should be buzzing to face a second-straight blue blood after the thrilling win against Kansas. Boozer's ability to play through contact and make winning plays late should keep Duke alive in this tournament, but we're projecting a much closer game than the spread indicates, and specifically a halftime score that has St. John's going to the locker room either leading or trailing by a possession. Pick: St. John's 1H +3.5  

(1) Michigan vs. (4) Alabama 

7:35 p.m. on TBS | March Madness Live 

It seems as though there's no middle ground to this game; either Michigan can win and cover, or Alabama will hit its 3-pointers and stun one of the most efficient teams of the 21st century. Our pick is to lean to the former, especially since the blueprint to slow Michigan down seems to be getting them into a half-court game, and that's not at all how the Crimson Tide operates. It's a styles-make-fights game for the Wolverines, who have somewhat quietly averaged 98.0 points per game across two NCAA Tournament wins, with each victory coming by at least 20 points on the margin. The many headlines and narratives of the opening weekend might have buried a somewhat obvious point: that one of the best teams during the regular season is also flexing its muscles in the postseason. Alabama can keep this close if they like the rims in Chicago, but odds favor the Midwest Region's top seed happily engaging in an up-tempo win to advance to the Elite Eight. Pick: Michigan -9.5  

(2) UConn vs. (3) Michigan State 

9:45 p.m. on CBS | March Madness Live

Silas Demary is still slowly working his way back to full health, Solo Ball and Braylon Mullins are in shooting slumps and yet UConn still finds itself as a narrow favorite because of the respect for this UConn program under Dan Hurley. But while the market might still look to the Huskies pedigree and ability to level up against the best competition, I'm going to side with a Spartans team that has had to play against the best competition for the entire season. Jeremy Fears Jr., Coen Carr and the rest of Michigan State's roster have been engaging in heavyweight fights all season and that battle-tested advantage could be the difference in overcoming some matchup concerns like UConn's ability to limit the transition opportunities that Sparty loves to feast on for easy offense. Pick: Michigan State +1.5 

(2) Iowa State vs. (6) Tennessee 

10:10 p.m. on TBS | March Madness Live 

Rick Barnes is knocking on the door of a third-straight Elite Eight appearance and already has Tennessee in the Sweet 16 for a fourth straight season. After years of criticism for tournament shortcomings, Barnes has shown in results a picture of a coach who is one of the best around in March over the last half-decade. The foundational pieces of his program, like offensive rebounding, are a huge part of neutral-site tournament wins, and that, in particular, is an X-factor in finding an edge against an elite Iowa State defense. The Joshua Jefferson injury is likely baked into this spread already, but it's still worth noting that Iowa State's offense would be easier to game plan against without one of their best all-around players. Jefferson is the team's second-leading scorer (16.4 PPG), yes, but he's also second on the team in assists (4.8 APG) and leads the team in rebounds (7.4 RPG). That's a lot of categories to account for against one of the better tournament teams around. Pick: Tennessee +4.5 

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