It's easy to view TCU coach Sonny Dykes' comments on his former quarterback, Josh Hoover, as sour grapes.

Dykes did an interview with State of the Frogs this week, during which some comments he made about his former quarterback went viral on social media. While discussing changes to TCU's offense in 2026, particularly under new offensive coordinator Gordon Sammis, Dykes wanted to stress how important it was that his team cut down on turnovers. It was at this point that Dykes made it rather clear who he felt was most responsible for TCU's turnover issues in 2025.

"I mean, I think you know that -- look, numbers are numbers, and stats are stats. And I think you know, you look for us, and I think Josh started 31 games here as a quarterback, and we turned the ball over 40 -- he turned the ball over 42 times in those 31 starts," Dykes said. "And you go, and you go, and you look at Gordy was the offensive coordinator last year at Connecticut, and their quarterback turned it over twice. And so, you know, I think that's where we want to get to, you know, you look at the teams that played for a national championship."

You can guess which part of that quote was immediately shared on social media: the 42 turnovers in 31 games. Surprisingly, there wasn't as much emphasis on Dykes starting with "we" before course-correcting mid-sentence to specify "he." Either way, considering Hoover left TCU after the 2025 season to join the reigning national champion Indiana Hoosiers, obvious conclusions were reached.

What's been lost in The Discourse, however (and Indiana fans have not been shy about protecting their new guy), the motivation behind the comment doesn't change the most important part of the comment: it's not an untrue statement. In fact, I could argue Dykes was being kind.

Hoover did turn the ball over 42 times in 31 starts, but that only includes the fumbles Hoover lost. Overall, he fumbled 17 times, losing eight of them. Remove all the luck of who falls on the loose football, and Hoover put the ball either in the other team's hands, or potentially in the other team's hands 51 times in 31 starts.

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Fumble luck (the idea that once the ball is on the turf, the team that recovers it is random) is the inspiration behind a stat I created a few years ago called Whoopsy Daisy Rate. The stat measures how many times a quarterback throws an interception or fumbles the football, regardless of who recovers it, per snap.

Hoover had a Whoopsy Daisy Rate (WDR) of 2.25% last season. Among 118 qualified QBs last season, that number ranked 89th. The man he's replacing, Fernando Mendoza, ranked 8th at 1.16%. Which is something Dykes touched on immediately after mentioning Hoover's issues.

"You look at Indiana this year, you know, they were number one in the nation in turnover margin, and they were plus-22 in turnovers, and then number two in fewest penalties. And so that's what we need to become. You know, we need to be a team that doesn't turn the ball over."

Whether TCU can do that, I don't know. I'd wager against it, though. What is of greater interest to me is whether Indiana will be able to iron that Whoopsy Daisy out of Hoover's game?

Hoover had a much better season in 2024 than in 2025 in regard to his WDR. While still not elite, his WDR of 2.18% in 2024 ranked 62nd among 114 QBs that season, and wasn't much worse than the national average of 2.08%. This was primarily due to a career-best interception rate of 2.3%, which may have been the result of Hoover making shorter throws in 2024. He averaged only 7.9 air yards per attempt that season, compared to 8.4 in 2023 and 8.6 in 2025.

Where things get slightly confusing is when looking for reasons to figure out why Hoover regressed; the first thing you assume is that he was under pressure a lot. Except he was pressured on 22.1% of his dropbacks in 2025, the lowest rate of his career by a considerable margin.

But he was also sacked at a higher rate than ever before, even if the rate wasn't terrible. Hoover's mobility has always been an asset. Hoover was sacked on 4.4% of his dropbacks, which ranked 34th of 133 QBs. The problem was that he succumbed to pressure at a high rate. His pressure-to-sack ratio of 5.28 ranked 88th. For whatever reason, even though he was pressured less than ever, Hoover also seemed less prepared to handle it.

He also panicked, which is what led to the turnovers.

That's what separates what Fernando Mendoza was able to do last season from Hoover. Mendoza had the WDR of 1.16% even though he was pressured far more often (30.1%) and had a similar pressure-to-sack ratio (5.28). On the whole, Hoover was given more time in the pocket than Mendoza was, but Mendoza took longer to throw. Anybody who watched Mendoza in Indiana's biggest games last season is well aware that he wasn't afraid to stand in the pocket and take a big hit if it bought his target an extra fraction of a second to get where they needed to be to make the play. It's not just Mendoza's talent that will see him drafted first overall this spring, but his demeanor on the field.

Can Hoover find that sense of calm? Can Indiana help him do so? There's reason to believe! Mendoza's WDR last season was roughly the same as his 1.26% during the 2024 season at Cal, but the one area he improved drastically was sack avoidance. After being sacked on 9.4% of his dropbacks with a 3.88 pressure-to-sack ratio at Cal in 2024, those numbers improved to 6.2% and 5.28 with the Hoosiers. Perhaps a change in system and a strong supporting cast will help Hoover iron out the kinks.

Much like Sonny Dykes and the TCU team he left behind, Josh Hoover needs to play more like Indiana did, too.