Best 8 College Football Futures from Mackenzie Brooks

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Miami U9.5 wins (-150 FanDuel)

It's hard to believe that this team, who scraped to 10 wins with the #1 overall pick in Cam Ward, will be able to pull off the same move with Carson Beck. Let's not forget the second half of Miami's season, which included some close calls like an overturned Hail Mary TD at Virginia Tech. The Hurricanes had wins against Florida, Louisville, and the Hokies last season in order to hit double-digit wins. We have those three games projected as coin flips this year, ultimately putting Miami at 8.3 wins this season. 

Ole Miss to Make the Playoff (+205, FanDuel)

Are we asking Ole Miss to win the SEC Championship? No. Do we think they could be the third-best team in the SEC and punch their ticket to the playoff? Absolutely. It's entirely possible to believe this is a top three team come December, especially given their favorable schedule. They only play one top SEC team in Georgia, while also getting Florida, South Carolina, and LSU at home. Our projections give them a greater than 50% chance to finish with three or fewer regular season losses, and in the expanded Playoff era, that could be all it takes.Their odds to make the Playoff are almost identical to their odds of 10+ wins, implying that a two-loss season should absolutely get them to the Playoff.

Alabama 10 win exacta

There's a very real world where all three of the top SEC teams finish under 10.5 wins. I'm staying away from any overs on that number—and that includes Alabama. We give the Tide a 35% chance to finish with two losses or fewer, and just a 25% chance to finish with three or fewer. That puts them squarely in 9–10 win territory. A 10-win season allows them to lose in Athens, then drop one of the games we have them as 60% favorites in: @ USC, vs. LSU, vs. Oklahoma. With only one 50/50 game vs UGA, and the rest showing 60% or greater favorites, I am willing to take the value on the 10 win exacta. 

Illinois U7.5 wins (+160 Caesars)

I hate to call any team fraudulent, but the way Illinois was able to hit 10 wins last year was a statistical anomaly. They had the point differential of a seven-win team. Even Iowa had a better point differential than them last year, and they only had eight wins. So while they do have a lot of returning production, the model is seeing that returning production as the sign of a 7.1 win team. Illinois also faces Ohio State, Washington and Indiana this season – all teams with a high upside. In order to hit nine wins, they will have to go 4-0 in the games we have them as 65% favorites in, and we see that more likely being a 3-1 situation. While I respect what the Fighting Illini pulled off last season, I will bet on regression and the under.

Syracuse U5.5 Wins (-160 DraftKings)

I mean, I can't imagine a more brutal ACC schedule. And just to kick them while they're down, they open the season against Tennessee which is no walk in the park. The Orange will face SMU and Clemson – two teams they had the pleasure of not facing last season. Not to mention, they lost 70% of their offensive production, including their best quarterback, tight end and receiver. So while we do have this team power ranked higher than teams like Pitt and UVA, we only have them projected for 4.5 wins due to their gauntlet schedule. 

ACC Champion Sprinkle: SMU (+1000), Louisville (+1000), and Georgia Tech (+1300)

The only real threat to this strategy is a Miami vs. Clemson ACC Championship – and if you've been reading from the top, you know I'm not buying into Miami this year. The beauty of this play is the flexibility: if any of our three teams — SMU, Louisville or Georgia Tech — face Clemson in December, you'll have the option to hedge with Clemson in the title game. These three make up 40% of the ACC title probability in our model, and they're all programs we've been bullish on thanks to strong returning production, especially SMU. I'm confident one of them can break through and take home the crown.

Texas to win SEC (+300 BetRivers)

Of the SEC's "Big 3," Texas has the most favorable path. They only face Georgia among the top-tier programs, and while they open the season with Ohio State, that game won't factor into SEC title decisions. The Longhorns have the ability to spread out losses across the season and not have poor momentum. But even then, there is a good chance they go 3-0 against Florida, Oklahoma and Texas A&M. Our model gives Texas a 25% chance to win the SEC, the highest in the conference. Why? Because we also give them the highest likelihood of simply getting to Atlanta, thanks to their regular-season schedule. From there, it's a virtual coin-flip in the SEC Championship, and we'd have Texas slightly favored against every other team. 

Week 1: Alabama (-12.5) vs FSU (-110, BetMGM)

I'd hate to call anything an "Act Now" play in July, but we want to get this spread before it crosses the key number of 14. The Sportsline Model has Bama projected to beat FSU by 16 in Week 1. While we do anticipate improvements in Tallahassee this season with their new mobile quarterback, it's hard to imagine that holds up against this Alabama defense. The Crimson Tide return essentially their whole defense along with their top receivers. This feels like it could be a statement opener for Kalen DeBoer in Year 2. 

Oklahoma O6.5 Wins (-170 DraftKings)

We're talking about a 6 win team from last season, and now they get Kent State on their schedule. We like the addition of John Mateer and the subtraction of Jackson Arnold. Mateer brings his OC from Washington State, a move that's worked well before (think Cam Ward to Miami, Bailey Zappe to WKU). That continuity should pay dividends quickly. The Sooners get some of their tougher games at home this year: Michigan, Auburn, Ole Miss, and LSU. A couple wins from that group, plus the softer non-conference slate, should be enough to hit the number. We project 7.5 wins, making over 6.5 a play with real value.