The 2024 college football season brought widespread upheaval with conference consolidation, the eradication of divisions in the ACC, Big Ten and SEC, the expansion of the College Football Playoff and 14 Power Four coaching changes. While the college sports enterprise as a whole remains in a period of transition, the 2025 football season is lighter on change.

There are no membership changes in any Power Four conference and just six P4 head coaching changes are taking hold. The CFP is also holding steady at 12 for at least one more year. Arguably, the most significant winds of change are at the quarterback position, as seven of the top 10 teams in the CBS Sports 136 preseason rankings will be debuting new starting quarterbacks.

Indiana and Tennessee are playoff teams from last season that are in the same boat, and mighty Michigan may start a true freshman, Bryce Underwood, under center. QB changes are also in store at Ole Miss, Oklahoma and Utah, just to name a few more. As such, many team win total bets hinge, in large part, among on talent at the game's most important position. 

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We aren't shying away from that reality in this year's edition of the best win total bets, as all five plays are on teams with new starting quarterbacks. The track record here is solid: we went 3-0 with two pushes in 2022, 4-0 with one push in 2023 and 4-2 with two pushes in 2024. That's a total of 11-2 with five pushes over the last three seasons. 

This year, we are paring the card back down to five plays but including three big-name brands and two bets that come with lucrative + odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Here are this year's best bets.

Auburn Under 7.5 wins (+134)

Making the leap from five wins to eight is a tall order for a team that is at risk of amassing scars before the end of September. Three of the Tigers' first five contests are on the road (Baylor, Oklahoma and Texas A&M), which brings 3-2 -- or even 2-3 -- into play. From there, they still must host Georgia (Oct. 11) and Alabama (Nov. 29). To take the over, you must have conviction that Auburn will go 3-1 in the following four games: vs. Missouri, at Arkansas, vs. Kentucky and at Vanderbilt. Is that doable? Absolutely. Is it likely? Much of that will depend on how a revamped front seven holds up and whether Jackson Arnold is the answer at quarterback. The vibes are weird around coach Hugh Freeze, who enters Year 3 under scrutiny for the amount of golf he's been playing. While the offense should have a high floor because of a solid line and receiving corps, a rocky start could derail momentum before it ever starts on The Plains. At +136, the under is a savvy move.

California Under 5.5 wins (-148)

Cal got rocked by the transfer portal, losing star running back Jaydn Ott (Oklahoma) and quarterback Fernando Mendoza (Indiana). Those high-profile defections accounted for only a portion of the offseason upheaval, as new general manager Ron Rivera has been granted significant leeway to run the program. That puts ninth-year coach Justin Wilcox in an uncomfortable spot as the Bears replace significant production on both sides. At first glance, a schedule that misses Clemson and Miami seems to give the Bears a chance. But nonconference games at Oregon State, vs. Minnesota and at San Diego State could sink this ship by the end of Week 4. After that tricky start, three cross-country trips for ACC games against Boston College, Virginia Tech and Louisville still await. A Week 2 home game vs. Texas Southern is the only guaranteed victory on this schedule. Attaining bowl eligibility will require former Ohio State backup quarterback Devin Brown and new offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin to be clicking out of the gate.

Georgia Over 9.5 wins (-168)

Unlike in 2024, (Clemson), 2022 (Oregon), 2021 (Clemson) and 2019 (Notre Dame), there is no blockbuster nonconference opponent on the slate. While the annual rivalry game against Georgia Tech at season's end will be challenging, the Bulldogs still own a significant talent edge on their in-state foe. Georgia must play Alabama and Texas, but the Bulldogs get both at Sanford Stadium where they own a nation-best 31-game home winning streak. Even if the Crimson Tide or Longhorns snap that streak, the Bulldogs could still afford a loss at Tennessee or Auburn on their way to 10 wins. The last time UGA lost three regular-season games was in 2016 during coach Kirby Smart's first season. The Bulldogs are unlikely to revisit those days anytime soon.

Notre Dame Under 10.5 wins (-154)

Notre Dame's greatness last season was helped by a favorable schedule. The Irish's regular-season slate featured just one team that finished in the top 25 of the final CFP rankings, and that was Army. This year, they open with Miami and Texas A&M, who are No. 10 and No. 18, respectively, in the CBS Sports 136. Also on the slate are tricky road games against Arkansas and Pitt in addition to home contests with Boise State and USC. If the Irish split their first two, they'd have to win out with redshirt freshman CJ Carr at quarterback in order to beat this total. That's possible, but it's a tall order for a program that has inexplicably dropped games against Northern Illinois, Marshall and Stanford under fourth-year coach Marcus Freeman. The Fighting Irish are likely going to play a defense-oriented, ball-control style that leans heavily on a great pair of running backs. Games with fewer possessions typically lead to fewer blowouts, which means several of these contests are likely to remain close into the second half. Notre Dame will be really good again -- and probably still a playoff team at 10-2 if the strength of schedule holds up -- but 11-1 is unlikely.

Wake Forest misses the top two teams in the ACC's preseason poll -- Clemson and Miami -- and doesn't play a Power Four team outside of the ACC in coach Jake Dickert's first season. That manageable schedule gives the Demon Deacons a shot at bowl eligibility. Wake could also be sneaky good offensively, as mobile quarterback Robby Ashford pairs with 1,000-yard rusher Desmond Claiborne under offensive coordinator Rob Ezell to give the Deacs' running game some pop. Ezell maximized another fleet-footed signal-caller, Gio Lopez, last season at South Alabama. Concerns about the offensive line are fair but mitigated by the fact that Dickert brought three proven blockers with him from Washington State. Defensively, the Demon Deacons return six of their top nine tacklers, which is a rarity for anyone but especially for a program with a first-year coach. At this price, it's worth a swing on the Demon Deacons exceeding modest expectations.