The Miami Dolphins came into the 2024 NFL season with hopes of recording their first playoff win since 2000, but a slow start that included the latest injury to star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, which caused him to miss four of the team's first six games, left the Dolphins with just 70 points on the season by the time Tagovailoa returned in Week 8. That's a significant point total, considering they put it up in a single game the previous year, which highlights the biggest difference between the 2023 Dolphins (second in points scored) and the 2024 Dolphins (22nd in points scored).

The biggest hurdle for the Dolphins to conquer in their quest to go from a good team to a great one is how they perform against other good teams. Over the last two seasons, the Dolphins have had a bigger discrepancy between their win percentage in games against teams better than .500 and .500 or worse than any team over the last 30 years, going 1-10 against teams that entered the matchup better than .500 and 18-5 otherwise.

Improvements will have to come internally after the Dolphins added just one key player in free agency in guard James Daniels. 2024 second-round pick Patrick Paul takes over at left tackle following the retirement of Terron Armstead, and his development will be key to the Dolphins' offensive success considering the importance of keeping Tagovailoa upright. The Dolphins may also suffer even more talent drain this offseason should trade discussions surrounding Jalen Ramsey and Jonnu Smith come to a head.

We're going to take a quick look at the Dolphins' 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we'll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Dolphins in 2025 and give out our best bets.

2024 Miami Dolphins season review

• Regular season: 8-9 (Second, AFC East)
• Playoffs: Missed
• First losing season since 2019
• 2-4 record without Tua Tagovailoa (6-5 with him)
• Longest active playoff win drought in NFL (2000) 
  

2025 Miami Dolphins offseason review

Five-year futures odds and trends

Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.

2025 Miami Dolphins futures odds

Odds subject to change.

2025 Tua Tagovailoa props

Odds subject to change.

Reasons to back the Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa has played just one full season in his career, and in that year he led the league in passing yards while the Dolphins finished second in points scored. When targeting a longshot to wildly exceed expectations, it makes a lot of sense to back a team that has shown a league-best offensive upside.

The Dolphins also have a relatively easy schedule, especially when broken down by home/away splits. Setting aside their pair of matchups against the Bills, the Dolphins' five toughest opponents either have to come to South Florida or play on a neutral field, while the toughest road opponents outside of Buffalo are the Steelers, Falcons, Patriots and Colts. If the Dolphins are able to stack up some road wins—which has been a major challenge in recent years—they could lean on an excellent home-field advantage to surprise a few contenders and make a playoff run.

Reasons to fade the Dolphins

It starts up front with the offensive line, which has major questions at the tackle position that can only be mitigated to a certain extent by getting the ball out early. The Dolphins have struggled offensively without Tua Tagovailoa on the field, and there's no reason to think 2025 would be any different if Zach Wilson is forced into action.

The defense could be bound for regression after finishing 10th in points allowed last year, considering it was in the 20s in Mike McDaniel's first two seasons, though this will be his first year with continuity at defensive coordinator as Anthony Weaver remains with the team. If Jalen Ramsey is in fact traded, the turnover in the secondary may be too much to overcome unless the pass rush can stay healthy and consistently win matchups up front throughout the season.

How to bet the Dolphins in 2025

• Over 8.5 wins +155 (BetMGM)
• Tyreek Hill Over 975.5 receiving yards -110 (DraftKings)

It's fair to think the Dolphins will win fewer than nine games this year based on the state of their offensive line and questions on the defensive side of the ball. But the extent to which the market is expecting it to happen is a bit much for me. The schedule sets up well for Miami to catch teams off guard in the first half of the season and enter a tough Week 9-11 stretch with as many as seven wins already in the bank, as road trips to Indianapolis, Carolina, Cleveland and Atlanta are all winnable if key players remain healthy. They'll have tougher road spots against the Jets, Steelers and Patriots late in the year when weather will be a factor, but I think an Over play has a better chance of hitting than the market suggests. For full disclosure, I fell into the same trap earlier in the offseason and made a play on Under 8.5 (-135) for the Dolphins, but I'll definitely be looking to make a stronger play back in the other direction.

The market is being very conservative with its Tyreek Hill projections coming off his worst season since 2019, as he had just 959 yards while playing all 17 games. The injury to Tagovailoa certainly didn't help, as Hill averaged 67 yards in the games Tagovailoa made it through, which would still put him well shy of his typical 1,200-yard season but able to hit 1,000 yards in his 16th game. I don't think there are many health concerns with Hill considering he has played at least 16 games in four straight seasons, and it seems he's now committed to the Dolphins after his post-season trade request. If he is moved, he would certainly be the focal point of any offense paying the price to acquire him. With most of the receivers you're playing over a total in this range, there isn't as much proven upside as there is with Hill, who averaged double his yards per game in 2023 than he did last year.