Kansas State has established itself as perhaps the most reliable program in the Big 12 under coach Chris Klieman. Since 2021, the Wildcats have won 36 games, the best mark in the conference. They're considered a perennial title contender in the Big 12. 

But three games into the 2025 season, Kansas State isn't looking very Kansas State-y. 

Losing to Iowa State in the Dublin opener is defensible, but struggling against North Dakota in a tight 38-35 victory one week later raised alarm bells. The Wildcats needed a touchdown drive with less than a minute left to pull it off. Last Saturday, it came to a head with a 24-21 loss to Army. The Black Knights lost to FCS Tarleton State just one week earlier, and were ranked No. 122 in the CBS Sports 136 coming into Week 2. 

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Now, Kansas State is staring down the barrel of 1-2 for the first time since 2009, the first year of Bill Snyder's second stint after replacing Ron Prince. All nine remaining games are against Big 12 opponents, including a technical "nonconference" game against Arizona. And with five games remaining against Big 12 title contenders -- three of them on the road -- the Wildcats are in serious danger of missing a bowl game, an astonishing fall for the conference's premiere program. 

So how did it happen? There's no big collapse. Kansas State has just regressed in several key areas. 

Stuck on the field

Kansas State was one of the most consistent defensive groups in the Big 12 last season as 10 players started at least 12 games on defense. The Wildcats returned five starters on defense, including top linebacker Austin Romaine and solid defensive tack VJ Payne. However, the losses on the defensive line have been felt. 

The Wildcats lost Big 12 Defensive Lineman of the Year Brendan Mott after the 2024 season, and the rush defense has felt the loss. Against Army's triple-option attack, Kansas State recorded a defensive run stuff rate of 14%, to rank in the first percentile, according to Game on Paper. The defense just hasn't done a good enough job getting off the field. 

Last season, Kansas State held opponents to fourth down conversions on only 32% of their attempts. Through three games, that mark is 83%. Kansas State has allowed more fourth down conversions through three games (10) than all of last season (9). Of course, playing an option team skews the numbers, but Kansas State ranks No. 128 nationally in time of possession. During their Big 12 title season in 2022, they were 26th. 

Inconsistent running game

On the first return of the season for Kansas State, projected starting running back Dylan Edwards made a mental error, muffing a punt and giving Iowa State the ball at the 8-yard line. ISU fumbled the ball right back, preventing disaster, but the damage was already done. Edwards left the game with a lower body injury and missed the first three games with an injury. 

In his absence, Kansas State has rushed for only 109 yards per game on 4.4 yards per carry, which ranks No. 112 nationally. Backup running back Joe Jackson has only 136 yards through three games, and Kansas State has not produced a rusher with more than 55 yards in a game. In the Rate Bowl against Rutgers, Edwards exploded for 196 yards and two touchdowns in his first start. 

That said, there's no guarantee that having Edwards in the lineup would fix the running game. The Wildcats had to replace four offensive linemen after the 2024 season, everyone except All-Big 12 center Sam Hecht, and the results show it. Last season, Kansas State running backs averaged 2.5 yards before contact per carry. This year, the number is down to 1.64, a decrease of 34%. At 5-foot-9 and 170 pounds, Edwards is more of an elusive back than a bruiser. 

Lack of a star turn

Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson is the face of the program after the Wildcats chose him over now-national champion Will Howard. To be clear, Johnson hasn't been even close to the biggest problems during the poor start, even recording 76 yards by himself on an 81-yard game-winning drive against North Dakota. However, Johnson also hasn't taken the step many hoped towards being one of the nation's top quarterbacks. 

Johnson's yards per attempt have dropped in each of his three games (8.8 to 7.4 to 6.9) and his passer rating against Army was a disappointing 123.0. Against North Dakota, Johnson was graded with six turnover worthy plays by Pro Football Focus. Even though he has only turned it over once, his turnover worthy play rate has actually doubled since last season. That brings serious questions when Big 12 play starts. 

It seems clear that Kansas State is trying to run the quarterback less often and let him work from the pocket to develop. However, neutering one of his top abilities has been a liability. Johnson has only 78 yards rushing this season, and 25 of them came on one rush during the come-from-behind win against North Dakota. The program simply must find better ways to maximize their most transcendent talent. 

Curse of the Irish?

Kansas State isn't the first team to struggle after playing in the Aer Lingus College Football Classic. Last season, Florida State lost a thriller against Georgia Tech, which kicked off a historically terrible 2-10 campaign. Two years earlier, Nebraska lost a stunner against Northwestern in a season that ultimately led to Scott Frost's dismissal. 

That said, plenty of teams have gone to Ireland and managed to put together decent seasons. Iowa State has taken off since coming back stateside, including a win over Iowa in Week 2. The Wildcats have a bye after the Friday matchup against Arizona. Things must get back on track during the off week.