Both the Baylor Bears and Arizona State Sun Devils posted surprising September losses and enter this Big 12 Conference opener with identical 2-1 records. ASU beat Texas State 34-15 last Saturday night, while Baylor crushed FCS Samford 42-7 with a 35-point onslaught in the first half. The new Big 12 rivals have only met once historically, a 34-13 Sun Devils victory in 1990. Thus far in 2025, both teams are 1-2 against the spread.

Kickoff from McLane Stadium in Waco is at 7:30 p.m. ET. The Bears are 2.5-point favorites in the latest Baylor vs. Arizona State odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 60.5 via SportsLine consensus. Before making any ASU vs. Baylor picks, make sure you check out the college football picks from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

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The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks, and is a profitable 32-20 combined on money-line and over/under college football picks since the beginning of 2024. Anybody following its college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.  

Where to watch Arizona State vs. Baylor on Saturday

When: Saturday, Sept. 20
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Stream: Fubo (Try for free)
Follow along: CBS Sports App

Baylor vs. Arizona State betting preview

Odds: Baylor -2.5, over/under of 60.5

How will the Arizona State defense slow Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson on Saturday? The senior signal caller has thrown for 1,070 yards in three games, which is second in the country, and 10 touchdown passes (tied for 3rd nationally). In the team's first two games against Auburn and SMU, Robertson topped 400 yards both times and threw seven touchdown passes to no interceptions. Baylor's top receiving targets include Ashtyn Hawkins (17-257-0), Josh Cameron (15-244-3), and Kobe Prentice (10-117-4). In addition, running back Bryson Washington has reached the century mark rushing each of the last two games and has scored twice in each.

On the other side, will Baylor have an answer for the Sam Leavitt to Jordyn Tyson connection? Both have the potential to be first-round picks in the NFL Draft as soon as 2026 and should prove to be a handful for the Bears' secondary. But Leavitt has gotten off to a shaky start, with only 527 yards passing and a 5-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio thus far. He has added 157 yards and three touchdowns on the ground, though. Tyson has been unstoppable in 2025, with 24 receptions for 314 yards and four touchdowns.

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Model's Baylor  vs. ASU prediction, picks

The SportsLine projection model has this game very close to both the spread and the total. The model gives Arizona State a 51% chance to cover the 2.5-point spread in Waco, while giving the Sun Devils a 47% chance to win the game outright. The model also predicts the total to go under, with 56% of simulations falling below the 60.5 point total. 

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