For the first time in nearly a decade, there is a Game 7 of the NBA Finals. The Oklahoma City Thunder will host the Indiana Pacers in Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals for the first winner-take-all final game of the season since the 2016 NBA Finals. The Pacers defeated the Thunder, 108-91, in Game 6 in Indiana on Thursday to force the decisive Game 7. Sunday will mark the 20th Game 7 in NBA Finals history, and the home team has won 78.9% of the time (15-4 record). Tyrese Haliburton was a game-time decision for Game 6 after suffering a calf injury in Game 5, but he finished with 14 points and the best plus-minus (+25) of any player on Thursday, and he should be active again for Sunday's Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals. The Thunder had the best overall record (68-14) and home record (35-6) in the NBA in the regular season.

Tipoff from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, is set for 8 p.m. ET. The Thunder are 8.5-point favorites in the latest Pacers vs. Thunder odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points is 215.5. Before locking in any Thunder vs. Pacers picks, make sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model entered the second week of the 2025 NBA Finals on a sizzling 160-118 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning nearly $4,000. It is also 24-11 (69%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has simulated Thunder vs. Pacers 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Thunder vs. Pacers:

Why the Thunder can cover

The Thunder covered the spread at home in more than 70% of their games, including the postseason, going 36-15-2 (70.6%) as a home favorite in every game in Oklahoma City this year. They've covered the spread in each of their last six home victories, with the only time during that span they didn't being the shocking Game 1 loss to Indiana to begin the NBA Finals. But Oklahoma City won its next two home games by 16 points and 11 points. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has played like his true MVP self at home in the NBA Finals this year, averaging 34.3 points, four rebounds and seven assists in Oklahoma City in the 2025 NBA Finals. The 26-year-old has the chance to become just the 11th player in NBA history to win the NBA MVP and NBA Finals MVP in the same year, joining a list that includes Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson and LeBron James, so you can certainly imagine that will provide additional motivation as well. The Thunder have the chance to win their first NBA Finals in the Oklahoma City era, and the opportunity to do it at home could lead to a special performance on Sunday night. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why the Pacers can cover

The Pacers have been underestimated throughout their postseason run, so why can't they shock the NBA world one more time? They've been the underdog in all six games in the 2025 NBA Finals and have still forced a Game 7. The Pacers defeated the Thunder, 111-110, in Oklahoma City in Game 1 and are coming off a 17-point victory in Game 6 in Indiana. Indiana isn't at full health, but Haliburton still played 23 strong minutes in Game 6 with 14 points and a +25 plus-minus. His presence and floor general leadership are integral, and he should be healthy enough to play in Game 7.

Forward Pascal Siakam continues to provide his NBA Finals experience and productivity. He's averaging 19.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, four assists, 1.7 steals and 1.3 blocks per game this series, including 16 points and 13 rebounds in Game 6. Siakam had 28 points in Game 5 in Oklahoma City, so playing on the road shouldn't hinder his production. The Pacers are 14-8 against the spread in playoff games and 26-20-1 ATS as the underdog this year. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

How to make Thunder vs. Pacers picks

SportsLine's model has simulated Thunder vs. Pacers 10,000 times, and is leaning Over the total, projecting 220 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in almost 70% of simulations. You can head to SportsLine to see the model's NBA picks. 

So who wins Thunder vs. Pacers Game 7, and which side of the spread hits in almost 70% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Pacers vs. Thunder spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.