High-major conference tournament action gets underway on Tuesday as the ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten begin postseason play with some action that will put bubble teams under the microscope. First-round conference tournament games are typically trap spots for at-large hopefuls, and this year is no different.
Playing a bottom-feeder from your league can do little to enhance a resume but much to hurt it. The hope is that an early start to the week can be a breeding ground for a big run. A handful of these bubble teams certainly need to stick around as they jockey for some of the final spots in the field of 68.
This past weekend brought epic carnage to the bubble as a hefty contingent of these squads took losses. In essence, the collective failures of the bubble last week have given many teams a mulligan. Didn't get it done to close the regular season? That's OK, because few others did. But at some point this week, teams are going to start winning their way into the field, right?
Check out the CBS Sports Bracketology model's latest bracket at the Bracketology hub
Below you'll find conference tournament targets for CBS Sports Bracketology bubble teams. The percentages are our model's prediction for what each team's chances of making the field would be if they exited in a certain round.
ACC
Cal
Targets: Quarterfinals (21% selection); Semifinals (54% selection)
California received a brutal draw for the ACC Tournament. The Bears must play hot No. 8 seed Florida State in the second round and then would be faced with playing No. 1 seed Duke in the quarterfinals. While the Blue Devils will be down starters Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II, that's still a tall task for the Bears, who lost 71-56 at home against Duke in their only meeting this season. An inexplicable 16-point home loss to Pitt on Feb. 28 is one these Bears may regret for a while if they can't make some magic this week.
Initial path: Wednesday vs. No. 8 seed Florida State (second round); Thursday vs. No. 1 seed Duke (quarterfinals)
Virginia Tech
Target: Semifinals (76% selection)
Reaching the semifinals would involve winning three games, but it's a relatively manageable path for Virginia Tech. The Hokies beat Wake Forest by 19 on Feb. 11, beat Clemson on the road on Feb. 11 and played North Carolina close on the road less than two weeks ago. Can these Hokies channel the magic that the 2022 team found on its surprising run to an ACC Tournament title?
Initial path: Tuesday vs. No. 13 seed Wake Forest (first round); Wednesday vs. No. 5 seed Clemson (second round); Thursday vs. No. 4 seed North Carolina (quarterfinals)
SMU
Target: Quarterfinals (52% selection)
SMU was relegated to playing in Tuesday's first round after losing four straight to close the regular season. If the Mustangs win their first game against Syracuse, they'll get a big-time opportunity against Louisville. If SMU beats the Cardinals and then loses to Miami in the quarterfinals, our model suggests it'll be roughly a coin flip.
Initial path: Tuesday vs. No. 14 seed Syracuse (first round); Wednesday vs. No. 6 seed Louisville (second round); Thursday vs. No. 3 seed Miami (quarterfinals)
Stanford
Target: Quarterfinals (51% selection)
Reaching the quarterfinals should be manageable for Stanford, considering the Cardinal are on a four-game winning streak that includes victories over the first two teams on their path. With freshman star Ebuka Okorie leading the charge, this team could be dangerous if it reaches the Big Dance. Beating No. 2 seed Virginia in the quarterfinals would be the result that would really turn heads and turn this from a coin flip into a safer situation.
Initial path: Tuesday vs. No. 15 seed Pitt (first round); Wednesday vs. No. 7 seed NC State (second round); Thursday vs. No. 2 seed Virginia (quarterfinals)
VCU
Target: Title game (76% selection)
VCU's Atlantic 10 Tournament path is not exactly rich with opportunity. But if the Rams reach the final, they will probably feel good about their at-large chances. The big problem with VCU's resume is that it does not own a single victory over a projected at-large bid recipient. The only way that could change in the A10 Tournament would be with a title-game victory over No. 1 seed Saint Louis. But at that point, the Rams would be an automatic qualifier.
Initial path: Friday vs. No. 7 seed Duquesne* (quarterfinals); Saturday vs. No. 3 seed Saint Joseph's*
*best potential opponent
Big East
Seton Hall
Target: Title game (76% selection)
Beating St. John's in a potential semifinal game would give Seton Hall a long-awaited marquee victory and bring its win total for the season to 22. You don't see many high-major teams getting left out with 22 wins, but that's where a poor nonconference schedule factors in. The Pirates have just one victory over a projected at-large team (NC State) and could need some breaks elsewhere in the country even if they win their first two games.
Initial path: Thursday vs. No. 5 seed Creighton (quarterfinals); Friday vs. No. 1 seed St. John's* (semifinals)
*best potential opponent
Big 12
Cincinnati
Target: Semifinals (69% selection)
Cincinnati's surge ran out of steam with a road loss at TCU on Saturday. Now it'll take a big run that includes a quarterfinal victory over No. 1 seed Arizona in order for the Bearcats to get back in the mix. The Wildcats won the only regular season meeting 77-51 at Arizona. Before Cincy can worry about slaying the giant, it needs to beat Utah and UCF. It might be the biggest story of the week if the Bearcats are able to mount a final charge and reach the right side of the bubble.
Initial path: Tuesday vs. No. 16 seed Utah (first round); Wednesday vs. No. 8 seed UCF (second round); Thursday vs. No. 1 seed Arizona (quarterfinals)
West Virginia
Target: Semifinals (55% selection)
Beating BYU and Houston and then losing to Kansas in the semifinals would get West Virginia to 7-8 in Quad 1 games. While the Mountaineers would likely still lag behind in some key metrics, seven Quad 1 victories are a head-turning number. Of course, the Mountaineers were left out of the field with six Quad 1 victories last season in favor of a North Carolina team that was 1-12 in Quad 1 opportunities. So you will forgive Mountaineers fans for being guarded in their optimism. That whole "beating Houston" thing is also much easier said than done.
Initial path: Wednesday vs. No. 10 seed BYU* (second round); Thursday vs. No. 2 seed Houston (quarterfinals)
*best potential opponent
Big Ten
Indiana
Targets: Quarterfinals: (31% selection); Semifinals: (94% selection)
Indiana may get a chance to redeem itself in the second round after a stunning Feb. 24 home loss against Northwestern. Winning that one is absolutely non-negotiable for the Hoosiers' at-large hopes. Beating Purdue and Nebraska would be the true needle-movers, but that will require some much better basketball from IU, which has dropped five of its last six games.
Initial path: Wednesday vs. No. 15 seed Northwestern* (second round); Thursday vs. No. 7 seed Purdue (third round); Friday vs. No. 2 seed Nebraska (quarterfinals)
*best potential opponent
SEC
Auburn
Targets: Quarterfinals (46% selection); Semifinals (97% selection)
Auburn hasn't won consecutive games since January. But if the Tigers get past No. 13 seed Mississippi State on Wednesday and then pick up a high-end Quad 1 victory over No. 5 seed Tennessee on Thursday, it will have a decent chance (46%) of inclusion. Winning a third game would entail beating No. 4 seed Vanderbilt, which would send the Tigers' odds soaring. If that's how it plays out and Auburn loses in the semifinals after three victories, the Tigers would be in a good position with just a 19-16 record. Remember, this team played a brutal schedule.
Initial path: Wednesday vs. No. 13 seed Mississippi State (first round); Thursday vs. No. 5 seed Tennessee (second round); Friday vs. No. 4 seed Vanderbilt (quarterfinals)
Missouri
Target: Already close to a lock (94% selection)
Missouri is entering conference tournament week at No. 39 in WAB and with victories against Florida, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Tennessee and Vanderbilt. That's a solid resume. A two-game losing streak to close the regular season wasn't ideal, but the rest of the bubble has been so bad that the skid didn't hurt Mizzou too much. It would take an early SEC Tournament exit, bid thieves and strong performances from the rest of the bubble to keep Mizzou out. Even if the Tigers don't win a game, our model believes there's over a 90% chance the Tigers are in.
Initial path: Thursday vs. No. 9 seed Kentucky* (second round); Friday vs. No. 1 seed Florida (Quarterfinals)
*best potential opponent
Oklahoma
Target: Semifinals (77% selection)
Oklahoma has won six of its past eight games to enter the conversation following a nine-game losing streak early in SEC play. But it might be too little, too late for the Sooners, who probably need three victories this week to get serious at-large consideration. If OU pulls that off, it would be a 20-win squad with wins over six projected NCAA Tournament teams.
Initial path: Wednesday vs. No. 14 seed South Carolina (first round); Thursday vs. No. 6 seed Texas A&M; Friday vs. No. 3 seed Arkansas
Texas
Target: Quarterfinals (76% selection)
Texas lost four of its final five regular-season games, which means the Longhorns must open SEC Tournament play on Wednesday against No. 15 seed Ole Miss in a game that can do nothing but hurt the cause. Advancing to the quarterfinals should solidify Texas as an at-large team, although our model still likes the Longhorns' chances (61%) with a second-round loss against Georgia.
Initial path: Wednesday vs. No. 15 seed Ole Miss (first round); Thursday vs. No. 7 seed Georgia (second round); Friday vs. No. 2 seed Alabama (quarterfinals)
Mountain West
New Mexico
Target: Title game (62% selection)
The only way New Mexico is going to feel safe is if it wins the Mountain West Tournament and gets an automatic bid. Three losses in four games to close the regular season did no favors for the Lobos, who enter the postseason averaging at around 51st in metrics used by the committee. That's on the outer fringe of at-large territory and indicative of the work they need to get done this week. A one-and-done week would be fatal for New Mexico, and a run to the title game is strongly advised.
Initial path: Thursday vs. No. 6 seed Boise State* (quarterfinals); Friday vs. No. 2 seed San Diego State* (semifinals)
*best potential opponent
San Diego State
Target: Title game (56% selection)
Even if San Diego State reaches the Mountain West Tournament title game and loses, its spot won't necessarily be safe. The Aztecs would probably need some good breaks around the country to make the field with anything less than a trophy. Losing four of six to close the regular season left this team in a lurch.
Initial path: Thursday vs. No. 7 seed Colorado State* (quarterfinals); Friday vs. No. 3 seed New Mexico*
*best potential opponent
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